Aleph’s analysis and forecasting service provides evidence-based insights, and answers to specific questions posed by our clients.
This work starts with a client consultation to definitively determine the exact questions of interest and the types of answers that will be valuable. We then use this to develop a concept of analysis that describes what information we will draw on, how we will analyse it, and how we will use this analysis to generate the insights our client needs. This time spent planning our approach means that when we do the analysis, it is the right analysis.
Aleph draws on a very wide range of principled methods in our analytical work, whose timeframe and sophistication will depend on what our clients need. At one end, this might involve simply running a structured analytical workshop to capture and synthesise a range of expert judgements. At the other, it might involve the development of statistical models and the use of advanced machine learning methods to generate probability distributions for key unknowns.
Case Studies
01
On behalf of our client working in the risk management field, we produced a series of predictive models to monitor and predict the security situation in North Africa.
This analysis drew on a variety of data sources to provide forecasts relating to factors such as oil production, security incidents or political events. The outputs generated a set of quantitative models that were used to gain insights about particular events in the region supporting better decision-making on the parts of those receiving the analysis.
02
Aleph performed a clustering analysis and developed a composite measure of state-level societal resilience to support our government client in engaging with partner nations around the world.
This analysis involved working with subject matter experts to come up with candidate factors that might be relevant, identify suitable data sources, and then test and refine a model for quantifying societal resilience. This work resulted in a better understanding of what affects societal resilience in different countries and a set of clusters grouping nations with shared characteristics into categories, and was used to inform the UK government’s international engagement efforts.
03
We carried out a study to predict the future space satellite population for a government agency.
The study developed a quantitative model to forecast future satellite launches drawing upon subject matter experts from industry and academia. The model combined numerical projections with expert judgements to predict the number and types of satellites expected to be put into orbit in coming years. The resulting scenarios informed planning assumptions and guided research to support the UK’s preparation for growth in space assets.