Does being a subject matter expert make you good at predicting events? This week, we delve into economist Tyler Cowen's blog on International Relations scholars and their ability to predict the Russia and Ukraine conflict, and further discuss international relations, analysis, and forecasting. We consider what makes for good analysis and the importance of having a sound methodology, diversity of thought, and understanding our own biases.

A few things we mentioned in this podcast:

- Tyler Cowen: How did the IR community get Russia/Ukraine so wrong?
- Conversations with Tyler
- The Good Judgement Project
- Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? By Philip E Tetlock
- No True Scotman fallacy
- Cognitive Engineering: Hindsight Bias
- Poll: Will Russia Invade Ukraine

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