A beginning is a very delicate time. The transition from one set of leaders to another can be fraught with difficulty. Talking before the US Capitol riots brought this so sharply into focus, we discuss what makes for a smooth handover of power.

In this podcast we discuss the factors that lead to turbulent power transitions and whether we can predict how they will go. We examine historical precedents from monarchical successions, enforced regime changes and democratic handovers, and question whether leaders are more or less vulnerable just after they have ascended to the throne. This podcast was recorded prior to the unruly invasion of the US Capitol Building - how accurate were our predictions regarding whether Donald Trump would attend Joe Biden's inauguration?

A few things we mentioned in this podcast:

- List of UK Prime Ministers
- List of Italian Prime Ministers
- No evidence of a significant 4-year cycle in US crime

Find more Cognitive Engineering episodes here.