What Coincidences Tell Us
That's No Moon
Logarithmic Probability Scores
Pareto Redux: 80:20 in Information Gathering
Resource-management under Uncertainty; Bats
When are Conditional Probabilities Equal?
Modelling Over- (and Under-) Confidence
Malware and Optimal Deception
Unforeseen Consequences
The Difficulty of Decision-making with Potentially Catastrophic Outcomes
The Length of Insurgencies
Clarity on Type I and Type II Errors